King Charles III delivered the King's Speech during the State Opening of Parliament under the new Labour government on 17 July 2024, and Dr Stuart Thomson identified six transport-related proposals within it, covering aspects of devolution, HS2, and rail and bus deregulation. Critically for those working in the transport sector, it's very difficult at this stage to understand what these proposals actually mean and when they might be further developed and implemented. Whilst the ruling political party has its policies and ideology, these will inevitably be met with opposition and the realpolitik of the situation and therefore predicting the future of such policy change is like looking into a murky crystal ball.
However, we can perhaps reflect on what was said and consider potential consequences. For example, perhaps the most startling aspect is how detrimental some of the proposals could be for the current public transport operators. Companies such as Go-Ahead, the First Group, Stagecoach, and Abellio could see their entire UK market removed if the plans are passed in their most literal form, with buses run by the devolved Regional Authorities and all UK trains back in public ownership and operation. Consequently, we can predict that the likes of Rail Partners (the train operators' trade association) and the Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT) (the bus and coach trade association) to spring into action, lobbying Government for the continued private delivery of public services, such as the current arrangement with 'Transport for London'.
Realistically, given the breadth of knowledge and depth of experience these operators possess, plus their detailed preparations for such a situation, they are likely to influence amendments to new policy and will continue operating. But the appointment of Lord Hendy, former London Transport Commissioner and Chairman of Network Rail, as a government minister means the governing Labour Party has a battle hardened and intellectual heavyweight capable of taking forward its agenda. There are certainly interesting times ahead, but pragmatically, in order to keep the country moving, we would expect a sufficient budget for large transport operators to maintain delivery of services to some extent. Realistically, this will need to be part of the political settlement to ensure that timescales for bus and rail projects are met. Under the new political regime, the key change in this approach will revolve around 'social value' which could be based on solutions such as that provided by the West Midlands Combined Authority which, like London, contracted out their bus and train routes. Additionally, the role that regional devolution will play in all of this is not yet clear, but it is anticipated that both Manchester and Birmingham will be given the autonomy to manage and deliver what was the HS2 northern leg. This shrewd move removes the risk of failure to deliver from central government, and also allows the elected Mayors and regions to demonstrate their ability to control and provide service to suit local communal interests.
But what is 'social value'? It's a wider understanding of value that goes beyond using just money as the main performance indicator, it emphasises engaging people to understand the impact of decisions on their lives (for instance, listening to and involving transport users in decision-making, facilitating consideration of aspects regarding well-being, etc). For transport professionals going forward the concept of social value is likely to be a game-changer, it will increasingly be a key factor in decision-making. For example, bus routes could no longer be operated on a purely profit and loss basis, activities that improve perceived 'quality of life' will be factored into decisions, in conjunction with increased tax revenue and decreased tax expenditure. Such as spending £50,000 a year on a bus route to increase passenger numbers, which increases walking, reduces the use of private cars and pollution, resulting in increased fitness and less respiratory issues within a population. This might save the health system £1 million a year in health costs, a clear net benefit even before taking into account the reduced individual pain and suffering of ill health. But for this to work aspects of transport governance will need to be decentralised to allow effective and efficient decisions to be made locally.
So, what's the emerging theme for the transport sector? From the King's Speech, it's a clear rethink as to how investment and cost decisions are made to support public transport. If the devolution agenda gives sufficient local control, it will see a huge shift of power (and money) that will lead to new ways of thinking, of making investment decisions, and of implementing transport solutions. We could be entering a new golden age of passenger travel outside of London, one where seamless and streamlined transportation networks are seen to deliver social value.
