What could transport look like in 2035?
Last month the Government announced the development of a new Integrated National Transport Strategy and a call for ideas to help set the direction for transport over the next 10 years.
Over twenty years ago I was at Transport for London when the Mayor's first Transport Strategy was created. It linked transport with economic development, social inclusion and environmental objectives in a way that made a real difference to how decisions were made in the capital. It's good to see the ambition to do this now at a national level.
This won't be easy. The challenges and context vary considerably across the country, so how can national coherence be achieved without comprising devolved decision making? Public money is also in much shorter supply than twenty years ago. And once we have a strategy we'll need to stick to it or it won't count for anything. But the benefits are potentially huge. A fully integrated transport system based on engagement with users about what they want can help people more easily get to work, see friends and family, and access services they rely on.
At one level we know from our research what most people want: more reliable, affordable and convenient transport. The challenge is in setting priorities, making trade-offs and developing long-term solutions that today appear beyond what's politically or practically possible.
Transport users are also citizens and voters. We know transport isn't free and that we don't all want the same thing, but one of the challenges of being a politician is that no one else has to make the decisions they do. The rest of us can say what we want without having to confront the uncomfortable truth of how difficult it might be to deliver or who would need to be disappointed for it to happen. Politicians have an increasingly complex job to do and difficult, long-term decisions are rarely rewarded.
To help with this, last year we held a sequence of workshops in Sheffield and asked transport users to think about the future of transport. They identified four key themes that we think policy makers should consider as part of their journey to 2035.
People told us they want a vision. They struggle to understand what government (both central and local) has been trying to achieve. This lack of a coherent narrative
can lead to scepticism about the ability and credibility of politicians and policy makers.
People also want to be engaged. They think this can lead to greater legitimacy and trust, as well as improved decision making that reflects people's needs at a local level.
People have a strong desire for fairness. This should result in equality not uniformity. It means recognising that some people will, for example, find it easier to change their travel behaviour based on where they live, their, economic circumstances, or whether they are disabled. People expect those in the strongest position to shift transport mode to have the greatest responsibility to do so. This may be easier to deliver politically at a local level, rather than a top down 'command and control' approach.
Finally, people told us they believe in experimentation. They eschew grand designs in favour of 'trying things out', getting feedback and adapting plans, though experience shows people may push back strongly if they think the wrong policy is being tried out in their area. Let's not forget how difficult the experiment with low traffic neighbourhoods has been in some areas.
Whilst these themes provide a steer for policy makers, the future is not without its challenges. As part of our work, we also asked experts to provide their view on some of the key emerging trends that will need to be considered.
In recent years a sense of unpredictability has been compounded by the impact of Brexit, the Covid pandemic and war in Ukraine.
In terms of social trends the UK is likely to be home to an aging, growing population, with fewer children and more health challenges. They will also likely be increasingly concentrated in urban locations. While the car is still the default mode, younger people are shifting away from car ownership.
Technological transformation is expected to continue be a growing trend. Electric Vehicles and Zero Emission Vehicles are becoming more popular and Autonomous Vehicles and Artificial Intelligence could have a major impact on transport patterns. Sudden developments in new or existing technologies have the potential to accelerate economic growth and transform transport provision.
It is clear we are at an environmental crossroads. Reducing surface-transport greenhouse gas emissions as part of reaching Net Zero by 2050 will require a reduction in overall demand for transport, as well as a shift from private car use to other modes. Emissions are falling at a lower rate than planned, and key emission-reduction enablers (such as the network of motorway charge points for EVs) is also running behind plan.
Key economic trends forecast continuing low economic growth, alongside long-running trends of low levels of investment, weak growth in productivity and real wages, and a decline in the workforce participation rate. There are also ongoing shifts in the pattern of economic activity – towards working from home, online retail, and the delivery of services by phone or online – that reduce demand for transport.
We collected these insights before the new Government announced it would produce an Integrated National Transport Strategy. Reading them back now I'm struck by how familiar they are – we are already talking about most of them – but also that none will make the job of writing the strategy any easier. Economic growth is a major challenge and that's before you factor in the need to renew and repair our ageing infrastructure. But what I'm also struck by is how necessary the strategy is, if we don't plan for the long-term now, when will we? As the voice of Britain's transport users we will be making sure their views are at the heart of this important work.
